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By Uno Svedin (auth.), Carl Folke, Tomas Kåberger (eds.)

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1960. Man, Mind and Land. The Free Press, Glencol Til. Cited in Kates, 1988. C. M. 1971. A Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 3:75-88. D. 1963. Habitat, Economy and Society. P. Dutton, New York. Cited in Kates, 1988. Harris, M. 1979. Cultural Materialism: The Struggle for a Science of Culture. Random House, New York. Cited in Kates, 1988. Hjort, A and Svedin, U. ( eds. ). 1985. Jord, Manniska, Himmel: NAgra Landers Syn pA Naturen iDe StoraKulturema.

3. The flow of benefits minus costs over time are brought together into a single value "today" (net present value). 4. Unquantified effects (intangibles) are described qualitatively and compared with quantified values. 5. Discussion of policy implications. CBA is a normative exercise aimed at providing policy-relevant conclusions, aiding, but not dictating, environmental decision-making. The idea that results emanating from CBA are somehow "objective" is not supported here. CBA is based on two assumptions: that individualpreferences should count, and that individuals are generally the best judges of their own welfare.

Historically, thereplacement process followed a "logistic" S-shaped curve starting slowly, then accelerating in the middle, and finally settling at the saturation top level. Such processes have a surprisingly similar pattern. Fisher and Pry (1971) have studied several such historical developments. After proper normalization procedures the "take over" processes fall along the same type oflogistic curve1 (Figure 3). This is a special case of the so-called Pearl's law, which has been used, for example, in biology (Pearl, 1925).

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